How long before Irish Republicans constitute a majority in Northern Ireland?

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Icarus

So many concessions have been made in recent years that this question is becoming less and less relevant. With increasing North-South integration, Irish and British people in the North can freely work, travel, and live wherever they choose. The border is definitively decreasing in importance.

Since the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), people born in Northern Ireland have the right to choose Irish or British citizenship. Anyone can stroll in to their local Northern Irish post office and request a passport application for either, or indeed both, nationalities. Since the GFA, some 400,000 people in Northern Ireland (22% of the population) have chosen an Irish passport, and this figure continues to grow rapidly (BBC, 2008).

I feel we have reached a new era of understanding and mutual respect on this island. A lot of bad things have happened in the past, but things are looking up. Deep underlying divisions still exist, but will hopefully be eroded in time. Generally speaking, middle class Nationalists/Republicans on both sides of the border view reunification as an end goal, but very few are willing to risk a return to violence for the sake of an artificial line.

In short, your question focuses on the old ideal of a dramatic reunification. I think it will be slower and more incremental than that.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on the burgeoning Scottish independence movement. That will have serious ramifications on attitudes here. Someday we may see Northern Irish Unionists question the dated link to Englandâ€™s apron strings.

Flying mop dog

Not gonna happen but if it did the North would be free to vote themselves out of the UK.

I can't see it happening too soon. The population of about 1.7 million has a minority of catholics, though clearly at some 40% of the population, they are a huge minority, as minorities go.

Traditionally catholics reproduce at a faster rate than protestants, but today's catholics are more likely to embrace contraception than they did in the past. Since in Northern Ireland politics, catholicism=nationalism, and protestantism=unionism, I can't see republicans changing the constitutional status of Northern Ireland for many generations to come.

I should be doing something else

It won't mean much for Ulster as three of the counties of Ulster are already in ROI. I think you meant to say 'What would be the future of Northern Ireland'

david d

One-third of Ulster is already in the Republic, and the rest should follow suit within 20 years.
The false promise that was the 6- county 'statelet' is over.

This upsets Alan M a lot, so we'll be patient with him.

Misty Blue

Following the last census, some statisticians suggested Catholics could constitute a majority in Northern Ireland by 2025. Sinn Fein has implied the changeover might arrive as early as the census after next, in 2011.

Ian Shuttleworth, a geography lecturer at Queen's University, Belfast, accepted that projecting forward past trends indicates this year's census on April 29 would result in a narrowing Catholic minority of between 46 to 48%. But immigration into Northern Ireland - the province's population has grown since 1991 by 100,000 to 1.67m - has cast doubt on the reliability of previous trends.

Patrick.K

NEVER NEVER NEVER...As someone close to my heart once said..Happy 12th to you papists.

submissivmsle36

hi you
i cant see this happening and even to use your words the Irish republicans constitute a majority in northern Ireland how many of the republicans would want to brake away from English rule there are a lot of if`s and but`s to your question here

wwJad

As this question concerns Northern ireland
I think you should realise that you have posted it in the wrong section
it should be in the UK part

Seanie

i dont think that will ever happen but if it does i think its goin to 1916 all over again...

Orla C

I think that by the time they multiply enough to become a majority in Northern Ireland, the whole notion will be completely void, irrelevant, forgotten about.

LondonIrish

Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will never unite. I'm not saying that Northern Ireland won't ever vote to seperate from the UK, but they will never reunite with Ireland.

It is much more likely that some day they will become an independant state. For one thing, Ireland can't afford them, the government can hardly afford the 26 counties it has that the moment. And even if we did take them in, there will always be a large number of unionists, and we'd just eventually be asking the question 'how long before Irish Unionists constitute a majority in Northern Ireland'

I'm southern Irish, but I have no great desire for a united Ireland. I think for now, economically the best thing for Northern Ireland is to stay part of the UK and in a few decades or so, because its naive to think that it will be any sooner, as the political climate is still very tempermental, they can petition for independance, and eventually become a state and nation of their own.

alan m

As nearly all the people have said its just not going to happen. The IRA with their murder campaign only made all the people in the north protestant and catholic more determined to remain British. The Irish republicans in the north are pro British now only the few extreme IRA republicans want a United Ireland. The IRA erased that chance completely for ever wth their utter stupidity and lack of brains. David d below reflects this stupidity well.

BrianO

I believe it's already the case, but only about 52% / 48% majority. Doesn't matter anyway as majority of people on both sides want to stay as part of UK(especially with Ireland going into economic recession) due to benefits like stronger currency, more money pumped into country than if part of Ireland, advantages of British passport etc. so don't see a change in you or my lifetime.

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